Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 938

   Mesoscale Discussion 0938
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1003 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

   Areas affected...central TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 230303Z - 230430Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe wind threat with a small MCS should persist
   through midnight, with less confidence in longevity overnight.

   DISCUSSION...The coldest IR cloud tops of the evening were recently
   sampled with a linear cluster/small MCS that has been progressing
   southeastward across the Big Country and Concho Valley. This
   correlated with the strongest measured severe gust thus far of 65
   kts at KETN, and likely a result of impinging on richer low-level
   moisture advecting northwestward from central TX. A 30-35 kt
   low-level jet as sampled by the GRK VWP could support sporadic
   severe gusts persisting southeastward during the next 2-3 hours.
   Consensus of 00Z CAM guidance inferred a more abrupt weakening of
   the cluster, but the RRFS appears to have a better handle on how it
   is evolving and supports a few more hours of severe threat. With
   instability weakening overnight, expectation is still for this MCS
   to diminish into the early morning.

   ..Grams/Hart.. 05/23/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   32419868 32299800 31719773 31319763 31159775 30799811
               30549858 30449941 30670015 31260022 31409944 31829913
               32419868 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN