Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 935

   Mesoscale Discussion 0935
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0551 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

   Areas affected...TX Hill Country vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 222251Z - 230045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Localized severe wind/hail will be possible through about
   sunset with slow-moving discrete storms in vicinity of the Hill
   Country.

   DISCUSSION...Several updrafts have formed in/around the Hill Country
   to the I-35 corridor in south-central TX. With nebulous large-scale
   ascent after peak heating, longevity of these updrafts is expected
   to be short-lived. Given a hot and well-mixed boundary layer, severe
   hail magnitudes should be limited. But melting hail cores may
   enhance downdraft potential, especially as cells begin to collapse
   around sunset. Marginally severe hail with isolated severe gusts are
   possible.

   ..Grams/Hart.. 05/22/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30469958 30929923 30969862 30929800 30689745 30489721
               30049730 29619762 29329794 29579872 30149942 30469958 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN