Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 933

   Mesoscale Discussion 0933
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0438 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

   Areas affected...a portion of north TX

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312...

   Valid 222138Z - 222315Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A long-lived supercell with a significant severe hail and
   wind threat will likely track south-southeast into early evening,
   and extend downstream of WW 312 in a part of north Texas.

   DISCUSSION...The deepest of the several supercells ongoing across
   western North TX is likely to persist over the next few hours as it
   tracks south-southeast along a pronounced MLCAPE gradient across the
   Big Country into north TX. While 0-3 km winds are weak, an easterly
   component along the fringe of mid to upper 60s surface dew points
   will remain sufficient for strongly buoyant inflow. Recent WoFS
   guidance has been consistent in maintaining a long-lived supercell
   track capable of both significant severe hail and wind.

   ..Grams/Hart.. 05/22/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33619848 33139781 32329730 31809731 31589784 31589812
               31659844 31869855 32569880 33519888 33619848 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN