Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 929

   Mesoscale Discussion 0929
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1227 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

   Areas affected...Southern Delmarva Peninsula into the Southern
   Chesapeake Bay Vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 221727Z - 221930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon
   from the southern Delmarva Peninsula into the southern Chesapeake
   Bay vicinity.

   DISCUSSION...Limited destabilization is ongoing across far southeast
   VA into the southern Delmarva Peninsula as filtered daytime heating
   occurs amid modest low-level moisture and cold temperatures aloft.
   This destabilization is occurring along the northern periphery of
   the stronger mid-level flow, which is contributing to 40-50 kt of
   0-6 km bulk shear across the region. Large-scale forcing for ascent
   will likely persist across this area as the upper troughing moves
   through, and the general expectation is for overall storm coverage
   to increase. Instability is expected to remain modest, likely
   limiting the overall updraft strength/depth. However, mid-level
   temperatures are expected to continue cooling, so there will likely
   be enough buoyancy for a few deeper cores. Additionally, the
   enhanced mid-level flow across the region could aid in the
   development of a few stronger downdrafts within the strongest
   storms. Even so, the overall coverage of damaging wind gusts is
   expected to remain low throughout the afternoon.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/22/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   38517678 38597581 38177517 37527530 36997573 36967638
               37407704 38057712 38517678 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN