Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 926

   Mesoscale Discussion 0926
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0757 PM CDT Wed May 21 2025

   Areas affected...parts of the Ozarks/Mid-South

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 220057Z - 220300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop into late
   evening, yielding an increasing threat for sporadic large hail and
   locally strong gusts. Initial storms may largely remain marginally
   severe, yielding uncertainty on coverage/intensity for a severe
   thunderstorm watch.

   DISCUSSION...Convective attempts have occurred along a
   quasi-stationary front over north-central AR and to the north of
   this front in far southwest MO. This latter zone should be the start
   of the well-advertised elevated convective regime this evening as
   800-700 mb warm theta-e advection intensifies. Initially, mid-level
   lapse rates are modest per the 00Z LZK sounding and model forecast
   soundings. This should temper initial updraft strength amid weak to
   modest elevated buoyancy. However, upstream lapse rates are steeper
   and in conjunction with a strengthening mid-level jetlet, should
   foster a more favorable instability/shear environment towards
   midnight on the western flank of the elevated convective plume. This
   setup may result in two separate regimes, one with marginally severe
   hail and locally strong gusts moving into the Mid-South, and a
   second round of large hail threat persisting into the Ozarks
   overnight.

   ..Grams/Hart.. 05/22/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37579514 37659426 37129255 36519055 35979031 35549050
               35389105 35619229 36229422 36889501 37299542 37579514 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN