Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 924

   Mesoscale Discussion 0924
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0514 PM CDT Wed May 21 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of southern Georgia into northern Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 212214Z - 212345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Locally strong gusts and/or marginally severe hail could
   occur with a couple isolated storms over the next couple hours.

   DISCUSSION...A couple isolated storms have developed across far
   southern GA -- immediately ahead of a cold front draped across the
   area. These storms are tracking slowly southeastward into northern
   FL -- where earlier heating of a moist boundary layer (middle 70s
   dewpoints) has yielded moderate surface-based instability. Given
   30-40 kt of midlevel westerly flow sampled by the JAX VWP, these
   cells may continue to exhibit marginal/transient supercell
   characteristics -- and locally strong gusts/marginally severe hail
   will be possible for the next couple hours.

   ..Weinman/Hart.. 05/21/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30808329 30968239 30908196 30728181 30478183 30258215
               30148274 30128301 30238341 30598347 30808329 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN