Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 921

   Mesoscale Discussion 0921
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1148 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025

   Areas affected...far eastern North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 211648Z - 211915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms may develop this afternoon over far
   eastern North Carolina. Localized hail or wind may occur.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a low over northeast
   NC/southeast VA, with a cold front extending westward across
   northern NC. South of this front, westerly winds and strong heating
   are steepening boundary layer lapse rates, and removing convective
   inhibition. Meanwhile, a narrow zone of mid 70s F dewpoints remains
   in place over far eastern NC. Continued heating will yield over 2000
   J/kg MLCAPE, beneath moderate westerlies aloft with around 50 kt
   deep layer shear.

   Although the westerly flow regime will eventually result in a drying
   air mass, a window may exist in the near term for a few strong to
   severe storms. Isolated marginal hail or a strong downburst cannot
   be ruled out.

   ..Jewell/Guyer.. 05/21/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

   LAT...LON   36217671 36417640 36457580 36337571 36037553 35587539
               35237548 35037602 34697635 34577651 34627665 34937691
               35447704 35837695 36217671 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN