Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 920

   Mesoscale Discussion 0920
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1033 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025

   Areas affected...parts of southern Georgia into northern Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 211533Z - 211800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong thunderstorm development appears
   underway.  Gradually, a couple of intensifying storms may pose a
   risk for marginally severe hail and localized potentially damaging
   wind gusts through 2-4 PM EDT.

   DISCUSSION...Low-level forcing for ascent remains a bit unclear, but
   scattered thunderstorm initiation appears underway within a broadly
   confluent pre-frontal low-level regime.  Insolation within a
   seasonably moist boundary layer, coupled with subtle mid-level
   height falls on the southern fringe of the westerlies, are
   contributing to weakening of inhibition, as CAPE increases in excess
   of 1500 J/kg in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates.  

   Deep-layer westerly flow and shear through lower/mid-levels appears
   modest, but 50+ kt flow near and above 300 mb may enhance stronger
   storms as they deepen in excess of 45-50 thousand feet AGL with
   additional destabilization.  Gradually, a couple of these cells may
   become capable of producing small to marginally severe hail, and a
   few strong downbursts with potentially damaging surface gusts
   through 18-20Z.

   ..Kerr/Guyer.. 05/21/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30888489 31518216 31138146 30178169 29678476 30198601
               30888489 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN