Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 919

   Mesoscale Discussion 0919
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0417 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025

   Areas affected...southern Alabama into west-central/south-west
   Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 210917Z - 211015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing in southern Alabama this
   morning. These storms are more isolated/cellular than those farther
   northeast in Georgia. The environment ahead these storms will remain
   sufficient for transient supercell-like structures.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed this morning to the south
   and west of an existing, long-lived line of thunderstorms. These
   developing thunderstorms exist in a slightly better thermodynamic
   environment than those storms farther northwest. Here, most-unstable
   CAPE of nearly 2000 J/kg and deep layer shear of 30-35 knots will
   support at least transient supercell-like structures this morning
   capable of strong, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado or two.

   ..Marsh/Smith.. 05/21/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31848815 32108785 32278740 32468588 32688415 32588359
               32098374 31678529 31658629 31568695 31468772 31578805
               31848815 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN