Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 918

   Mesoscale Discussion 0918
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0336 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025

   Areas affected...central into eastern Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 210836Z - 211000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms across portions of the southeast
   will generally continue to weaken this morning. However a brief wind
   threat or QLCS-like tornado threat may persist in the short term,
   before weakening.

   DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms continues to move
   east-southeast across eastern Alabama and central Georgia this
   morning. These thunderstorms have generally been on a weakening
   trend since late Tuesday evening. However, the environment remains
   strongly sheared and buoyant this morning, which supports at least
   episodic thunderstorm intensity pulses capable of producing sporadic
   wind damage. Additionally, 0-500 meter shear is in excess of 30
   knots with 0-500 meter SRH around 300 m2/s2. This kind of low-level
   environment will support at least short-term threat of brief, QLCS
   tornadoes -- especially with any stronger thunderstorm core-boundary
   interactions.

   The overall large-scale forcing is generally weaker this morning
   with south extent. The current thinking is that the ongoing Georgia
   thunderstorms should weaken with the severe risk becoming
   increasingly localized as the thunderstorms become more displaced
   from the stronger forcing. A new watch is not expected.

   ..Marsh/Smith.. 05/21/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...FFC...

   LAT...LON   33558436 33938334 33738221 33158172 32298198 32118325
               32758437 33278454 33558436 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN