Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 893

   Mesoscale Discussion 0893
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0804 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of northwest Arkansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 297...

   Valid 200104Z - 200230Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 297 continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk of tornadoes (some possibly strong) and damaging
   winds continues spreading eastward across parts of northwest
   Arkansas.

   DISCUSSION...A north/south-oriented MCS is tracking eastward across
   northwest Arkansas. Around 50 kt of 0-6 km shear (per area VWP data)
   is oriented oblique to the gust front of this system, which is
   supporting the maintenance of several deeper/embedded rotating
   updrafts -- aided by moderately unstable surface-based inflow (see
   LZK 00Z sounding). These embedded supercell/mesovortex structures
   will continue to pose a tornado risk (some possibly strong) with
   eastward extent -- given ample low-level streamwise vorticity (300
   m2/s2 0-1km SRH sampled by LZK VWP). Damaging winds will also remain
   possible, especially in the vicinity of any
   supercells/mesovorticies.

   ..Weinman.. 05/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35079464 35849415 36379397 36449353 36449321 36309276
               36059257 35209298 34949338 34909436 35079464 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN