Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 892

   Mesoscale Discussion 0892
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0742 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of north-central Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 295...

   Valid 200042Z - 200215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 295 continues.

   SUMMARY...Risk of large hail and severe wind gusts continues, with
   embedded tornadoes also possible. A local time extension of Tornado
   Watch 295 may be needed, depending on storm evolution over the next
   hour.

   DISCUSSION...At the tail-end of a continuous convective line
   extending from southeast/south-central OK into north-central TX, a
   couple embedded supercells are impinging on an air mass
   characterized by 3200 J/kg MLCAPE (sampled by FWD 00Z sounding) and
   300 m2/s2 0-1km SRH (per FWS VWP). With mostly line-parallel
   deep-layer shear, a mostly linear mode with embedded supercells
   should continue. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main
   concerns, though the aforementioned streamwise vorticity amid any
   deep/embedded rotating cores will still support a tornado risk for a
   couple more hours. A local time extension of Tornado Watch 295 may
   be needed -- depending on storm evolution over the next hour.

   ..Weinman.. 05/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33449765 33849731 34149653 34109607 33869589 33549598
               33149683 33099732 33219765 33449765 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN