Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended. Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 286
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
200 PM MDT Sun May 18 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northeast Colorado
Northwest Kansas
Southwest Nebraska
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until
800 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms will rapidly intensify this
afternoon across the watch area in an increasingly moist and
unstable air mass. Very large hail and tornadoes are possible with
the strongest storms.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
east and west of a line from 50 miles north northeast of Sidney NE
to 60 miles southwest of Hill City KS. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 23030.
...Hart
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 286 TORNADO CO KS NE 182000Z - 190200Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50NNE SNY/SIDNEY NE/ - 60SW HLC/HILL CITY KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /40E BFF - 35SSW HLC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23030.
LAT...LON 41760106 38759913 38750210 41760416
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 286 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 286
VALID 182340Z - 190040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW GCK TO
10 WNW BFF.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 863
..WEINMAN..05/18/25
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 286
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC095-115-125-190040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PHILLIPS SEDGWICK YUMA
$$
KSC023-039-063-065-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-203-190040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE
GRAHAM LOGAN NORTON
RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN
THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA
$$
NEC005-007-029-033-049-057-063-069-085-087-101-111-117-123-135-
145-190040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BANNER CHASE
CHEYENNE DEUEL DUNDY
FRONTIER GARDEN HAYES
HITCHCOCK KEITH LINCOLN
MCPHERSON MORRILL PERKINS
RED WILLOW
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 286
VALID 182225Z - 182340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S ITR TO
25 ESE CYS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 863
..THORNTON..05/18/25
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 286
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC075-095-115-125-182340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK
YUMA
$$
KSC023-039-063-065-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-203-182340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE
GRAHAM LOGAN NORTON
RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN
THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA
$$
NEC005-007-029-033-049-057-063-069-085-087-101-105-111-117-123-
135-145-182340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BANNER CHASE
CHEYENNE DEUEL DUNDY
FRONTIER GARDEN HAYES
HITCHCOCK KEITH KIMBALL
LINCOLN MCPHERSON MORRILL
PERKINS RED WILLOW
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 286
VALID 182145Z - 182240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..THORNTON..05/18/25
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 286
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC063-075-087-095-115-121-123-125-182240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KIT CARSON LOGAN MORGAN
PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON
WELD YUMA
$$
KSC023-039-063-065-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-203-182240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE
GRAHAM LOGAN NORTON
RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN
THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA
$$
NEC005-007-029-033-049-057-063-069-085-087-101-105-111-117-123-
135-145-182240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BANNER CHASE
CHEYENNE DEUEL DUNDY
FRONTIER GARDEN HAYES
HITCHCOCK KEITH KIMBALL
LINCOLN MCPHERSON MORRILL
PERKINS RED WILLOW
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
Mod (30%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Low (20%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (70%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (60%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (90%)
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The “Low” category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
“Moderate” from 30% to 60%, and “High” from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
