Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 885

   Mesoscale Discussion 0885
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0517 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of far east-central Colorado into western
   Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 192217Z - 200015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated instances of large hail and locally severe gusts
   will remain possible for the next few hours. Given the
   localized/isolated nature of the severe risk, a watch is not
   currently expected.

   DISCUSSION...Beneath the large-scale trough now centered over the
   central Rockies/High Plains, cold midlevel temperatures atop a
   deeply mixed boundary layer are contributing to steep deep-layer
   lapse rates across east-central CO into western KS -- with around
   800 J/kg MLCAPE. With around 30 kt of effective shear, marginal
   supercell structures will be capable of producing isolated large
   hail and locally severe gusts (one earlier report of 2.5 inch hail).
   However, given the somewhat marginal deep-layer shear and buoyancy,
   the overall severe risk is expected to remain too sporadic/isolated
   for a watch at this time.

   ..Weinman/Gleason.. 05/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...

   LAT...LON   39110192 39010058 39189998 39229924 39019888 38469896
               37609956 37519983 37490150 37860231 38510251 38920235
               39110192 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN