Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 884

   Mesoscale Discussion 0884
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0457 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of southeast into east-central Oklahoma

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 292...295...

   Valid 192157Z - 192330Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 292, 295 continues.

   SUMMARY...Storms over south-central/southeast Oklahoma should spread
   northeastward into an increasingly favorable corridor for supercell
   intensification over the next few hours -- with a corresponding
   increase in tornado potential.

   DISCUSSION...A somewhat messy convective evolution with embedded
   supercell clusters is evolving from north-central TX into
   south-central/southeast OK as of 2150Z. Ahead of this activity, a
   relatively pristine warm/moist sector is in place -- characterized
   by lower 70s dewpoints beneath a steep midlevel lapse rate plume
   (sampled by earlier special soundings across the region). This is
   contributing to upwards of 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. A 40-45 kt low-level
   jet over the warm sector is yielding clockwise-curved hodographs,
   with around 270 m2/s2 effective SRH. This should support a gradual
   intensification of the ongoing convection into semi-discrete
   supercells over the next few hours, and ample residence time in the
   high-helicity air will favor an increasing risk of tornadoes (some
   of which could become strong to intense if a semi-discrete
   supercell-mode can evolve). Very large hail and damaging winds will
   also remain a concern with these storms.

   ..Weinman.. 05/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34209715 34519707 35219637 35509597 35609539 35569498
               35399466 34999461 34559488 33999564 33729635 33759681
               33979713 34209715 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN