Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 883

   Mesoscale Discussion 0883
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0338 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

   Areas affected...parts of east central and northeastern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 292...

   Valid 192038Z - 192245Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 292 continues.

   SUMMARY...Long-lived discrete supercell development accompanied by
   potential for a couple of strong tornadoes remains possible, while
   spreading across the I-40 into I-44 corridors of northeastern
   Oklahoma through 5-7 PM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...A clustering of strong to severe storms, including a
   couple of sustained tornado producing supercells continues to
   develop north/northeastward, within a seasonably moist and
   moderately unstable warm sector, well east of the dryline.  This has
   been supported by a weak lead mid-level perturbation progressing
   toward the Ozark Plateau.

   The supercells are generally focused along/west of a strengthening
   (40+ kt) 850 mb jet axis, and now within an area of stronger surface
   pressure falls (including 2-3+ mb/2 hourly, evident in 20Z surface
   observations).  As long as the supercells remain more or less
   discrete, the environment remains conducive to additional tornado
   development, with perhaps some increase in potential for a strong
   tornado or two into early evening.

   ..Kerr.. 05/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35559662 36829582 36889510 36239458 34949549 35029560
               34959621 35199669 35559662 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN