Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 882

   Mesoscale Discussion 0882
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0331 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

   Areas affected...Southern Iowa into northeast Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 192031Z - 192200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving out of northern Missouri will pose a
   severe hail risk for parts of southern Iowa and northeast Missouri
   over the next few hours. Watch issuance is expected.

   DISCUSSION...Elevated convection continues to rapidly develop
   northward across northern Missouri and is spreading into
   south-central Iowa within a zone of strong warm air advection
   between 925-850 mb. Despite being elevated in nature, MUCAPE and
   effective shear downstream across IA and northeast MO remains very
   favorable for organized convection (MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg and 45-55
   knots respectively). Storm mode will likely remain a mix of
   supercells and clusters, but intense updrafts will be capable of
   producing severe hail, most likely between 1 to 2 inches diameter. A
   severe thunderstorm watch will be needed soon to address this
   threat.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 05/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

   LAT...LON   39819311 40369357 40649400 40989461 41159510 41409533
               41699527 41889507 42099451 42099374 41979301 41619211
               40799143 40319138 40019158 39799184 39749239 39709279
               39819311 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN