Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 880

   Mesoscale Discussion 0880
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0234 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

   Areas affected...Northeast Arkansas and adjacent portions of
   Mississippi...Tennessee...and Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 191934Z - 192130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated convection developing across northeast
   Arkansas/parts of the mid-Mississippi River Valley may sufficiently
   intensify to pose a hail/wind threat through late afternoon.
   Coverage of strong/severe storms should remain too limited for watch
   issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, shallow convection has percolated
   across northeast AR as temperatures warm into the mid 80s amid low
   to mid 70 dewpoints. Within the last 15 minutes, GOES IR imagery
   shows a few deeper towers developing, suggesting that this
   convection is beginning to overcome lingering MLCIN and fully
   realizing the high-buoyancy environment (MLCAPE estimated between
   2500-3000 J/kg). 30-40 knot flow between 5-6 km sampled by regional
   VWPs is supporting bulk shear values around 30 knots, which should
   be sufficient to support a few stronger/severe cells through late
   afternoon. Large hail should be the primary concern with
   deeper/stronger cells, though numerous storms in close proximity may
   promote destructive storm interactions and/or some degree of
   clustering with an more pronounced damaging wind threat. In general,
   severe storm coverage should remain sufficiently limited due to weak
   forcing for ascent to preclude watch issuance at this time (though a
   more robust/widespread severe threat is expected to emerge later
   tonight).

   ..Moore/Hart.. 05/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...

   LAT...LON   34469078 34629113 34969136 35359147 35839131 36389100
               36639061 36678997 36548966 36308948 36068940 35688945
               35248964 34738998 34499016 34469078 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN