Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 871

   Mesoscale Discussion 0871
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1005 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

   Areas affected...Northwest and North-central Kansas...Southern
   Nebraska

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 291...

   Valid 190305Z - 190500Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 291 continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat, along with potential for large
   hail and wind damage will continue across parts of
   north-central/central Kansas and southern Nebraska.

   DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Hastings,
   Nebraska shows scattered severe storms ongoing across parts of
   southern and Nebraska and north-central Kansas. These storms are
   located along and to the east of an axis of moderate instability.
   The storms are also located along the western edge of a
   strengthening low-level jet. The latest WSR-88D VWP near Hastings,
   Nebraska is sampling the low-level jet well, with strong directional
   shear in the lowest 2 kilometers and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
   near 600 m2/s2. This will continue to be favorable for tornadoes,
   mainly further south into north-central and central Kansas, where
   instability is stronger and storms are more likely to be
   surface-based. Very large hail and wind damage will be possible with
   supercells. 

   Further west into parts of northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska,
   a line of strong to severe storms is developing along a frontal
   boundary. As this line intensifies, a wind-damage threat may
   increase over the next few hours.

   ..Broyles.. 05/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   40849874 41209943 41309991 41210054 41000093 40650102
               40170067 39519938 38899896 38689856 38789811 39419784
               40059805 40849874 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN