Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 865

   Mesoscale Discussion 0865
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0621 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of north-central Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 288...

   Valid 182321Z - 190015Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 288 continues.

   SUMMARY...Tornado threat is increasing with a supercell cluster over
   north-central Texas.

   DISCUSSION...The KDYX radar indicates gradual intensification of a
   supercell cluster over north-central Texas. Given around 300 m2/s2
   0-1km SRH (per DYX VWP data) and lower 70s dewpoints streaming
   northward into the inflow of this activity, the tornado threat is
   likely increasing. The eastern part of the risk area may be limited
   due to substantial inhibition sampled by the earlier 20Z FWD
   sounding -- especially in the near-term.

   ..Weinman.. 05/18/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

   LAT...LON   32429948 32749942 33099917 33219884 33179857 32969833
               32539831 32229852 32069894 32139940 32429948 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN