Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 861

   Mesoscale Discussion 0861
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0442 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of northern Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 182142Z - 182245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Risk of severe wind gusts and large hail will continue
   spreading eastward into tonight. A watch is likely.

   DISCUSSION...An earlier supercell cluster with a history of
   producing large hail and severe winds gusts is tracking eastward
   along a warm front draped across northern Arkansas. While this storm
   is generally right on the boundary, it appears to have access to
   moderately unstable surface-based air to its immediate south.
   Low/midlevel warm advection is contributing to upscale growth, and
   around 50 kt of 0-6 km shear (per nearby VWP) will favor continued
   organization/upscale growth into an MCS -- with an attendant risk of
   severe wind gusts and sporadic large hail. A watch is likely for
   parts of the area.

   ..Weinman/Gleason.. 05/18/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   34989119 34969211 35459366 35819429 36219431 36469411
               36529373 36449296 36079108 35819074 35279079 34989119 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN