Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 860

   Mesoscale Discussion 0860
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0321 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

   Areas affected...much of western Oklahoma...southwest
   Kansas...extreme eastern Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 182021Z - 182215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered supercells capable of strong tornadoes and very
   large hail are forecast from late afternoon into the evening from
   parts of northwest Oklahoma into southwest Kansas. EF3+ tornadoes
   may occur.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis and visible imagery clearly outline
   the unstable warm sector, situated between a dryline from southeast
   CO into the eastern TX Panhandle, and a warm front/retreating
   outflow draped across northern OK into south-central KS. The air
   mass has become very unstable, and will continue to develop
   northward. This air mass is coincident with an already strongly
   sheared environment with effective SRH over 200 m2/s2. These
   low-level shear values will increase markedly later today and during
   the evening as the low level jet increases with effective SRH of
   300-400 m2/s2 common.

   While very cool air and clouds currently exist over northern OK into
   south-central KS, a strengthening low-level jet will likely yield
   clearing later in the evening, which may allow the tornado threat to
   expand farther eastward.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 05/18/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36550068 37090105 37990176 38200176 38680094 38760012
               38589951 38059874 37129807 35549775 34719805 34419924
               34559967 34700005 34930029 35840049 36550068 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...155-190 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN