Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 855

   Mesoscale Discussion 0855
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0918 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

   Areas affected...much of southern Georgia

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285...

   Valid 181418Z - 181615Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A corridor of severe wind potential may extend southeast
   of WW 285, with isolated hail over southern areas. A new watch may
   be needed downstream soon.

   DISCUSSION...An organized convective system continues to move
   rapidly southeastward over west-central GA. This system is near the
   instability gradient, with extends all the way to the coast. The
   morning soundings show substantial mid level winds along with good
   lapse rates aloft and relatively weak low-level winds. This appears
   favorable for forward propagation and continued damaging wind threat
   for a few hours.

   In addition, given that the strongest instability is on the southern
   periphery of this convective system, at least a gradual increase in
   storm cores is possible along the south end which may also contain
   large hail, especially as boundary layer heating occurs.

   ..Jewell.. 05/18/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

   LAT...LON   30928158 31048208 31468328 32098489 32288508 32498464
               32738434 32988418 32268235 31788113 31568096 31198108
               30988133 30928158 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN