Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 854

   Mesoscale Discussion 0854
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0656 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

   Areas affected...central Arkansas and northern Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284...

   Valid 181156Z - 181400Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Long-lived cluster of thunderstorms, with a history of
   producing wind damage, continues to move through central Arkansas.
   The overall environment should continue to support a severe threat
   ahead of this MCS through at least mid morning.

   DISCUSSION...Long-lived linear MCS, with a history of producing wind
   damage, continues to move east-southeast through much of Arkansas
   this morning. This MCS is moving along a west-northwest to
   east-southeast CAPE gradient stretching from northeast Oklahoma into
   southern Georgia and is following a similar path as to an earlier
   MCS from last evening into earlier this morning. 

   The overall large-scale environment will continue to support
   maintenance of this MCS as the MCS has access to MUCAPE greater than
   2000 J/kg and effective shear around 50 knots. The organization of
   the MCS, the overall favorable environment,and knowledge that the
   earlier MCS traversed a similar environment and is continuing
   through Alabama supports the severe threat through the morning. A
   downstream watch may become necessary for portions of far eastern
   Arkansas and northern Mississippi as the MCS approaches the edge of
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch #284.

   ..Marsh.. 05/18/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   35469280 34228896 33228915 34329338 35469280 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN