Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 848

   Mesoscale Discussion 0848
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0953 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

   Areas affected...Ark-La-Tex

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 282...

   Valid 180253Z - 180500Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 282
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue across the
   Ark-La-Tex over the next few hours. Wind damage and hail will be the
   primary threats.

   DISCUSSION...A couple of severe storms are currently ongoing in
   southeast Oklahoma, according to mosaic radar imagery. The activity
   is located along and near an axis of moderate instability, where
   MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, according
   to the RAP. The convection is being supported by a subtle shortwave
   trough, evident on water vapor imagery over the Ark-La-Tex. In
   addition, the Shreveport WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 55 knots.
   Forecast soundings late this evening in the Ark-La-Tex have steep
   low to mid-level lapse rates suggesting that a wind-damage threat
   will continue. Hail could also occur. The threat should become more
   isolated with time as instability gradually decreases, and as a weak
   capping inversion increases.

   ..Broyles.. 05/18/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34349332 33809276 33289287 32999327 32979374 33149447
               33609522 34049562 34509571 34959535 35009479 34699398
               34349332 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN