Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 845

   Mesoscale Discussion 0845
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0641 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

   Areas affected...Ark-La-Tex

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 172341Z - 180215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A wind-damage, large hail and isolated tornado threat is
   expected to develop across parts of the Ark-La-Tex early this
   evening. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Fort Worth, Texas shows
   multiple clusters of severe storms across northeast Texas. The
   storms are located along the western edge of a pocket of strong to
   extreme instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 4500 to 5500
   J/kg range. Water vapor imagery suggests that a shortwave trough is
   moving through north-central Texas. Large-scale ascent associated
   with this feature will support the continued development of strong 
   thunderstorms. Short-term forecasts, including the HRRR, move these
   storms east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex over the next few
   hours. In the Ark-La-Tex, the latest RAP shows steep low-level lapse
   rates between 7.5 and 8 C/km, along with moderate deep-layer shear.
   This is evident on the Shreveport WSR-88D VWP which has 0-6 km shear
   near 50 knots.  This environment will likely be favorable for a
   severe threat with wind damage and large hail possible. An isolated
   tornado could also develop.

   ..Broyles.. 05/17/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

   LAT...LON   34629278 34869367 34859443 34459505 33629536 32869518
               32519454 32399371 32509288 33039236 33749216 34299225
               34629278 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN