Storm Prediction Center Severe Thunderstorm Watch 281
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2 weeks ago
Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended. Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 281
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
500 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Arkansas
Northeast Louisiana
West-Central Mississippi
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 500 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Ongoing supercell thunderstorms should persist for several
more hours this afternoon and evening while posing a threat for
mainly 1-2 inch diameter hail. Isolated damaging winds may also
occur.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north of
Monroe LA to 30 miles south of Greenwood MS. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 277...WW 278...WW
279...WW 280...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
26025.
...Gleason
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 281 SEVERE TSTM AR LA MS 172200Z - 180300Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
40N MLU/MONROE LA/ - 30S GWO/GREENWOOD MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM N/S /35N MLU - 26SSE SQS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.
LAT...LON 33759203 33729008 32419008 32459203
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 281 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 281
VALID 172250Z - 172340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..THORNTON..05/17/25
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 281
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-011-017-041-043-172340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY BRADLEY CHICOT
DESHA DREW
$$
LAC035-065-067-083-123-172340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
EAST CARROLL MADISON MOREHOUSE
RICHLAND WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC011-051-053-055-083-125-133-149-151-163-172340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR HOLMES HUMPHREYS
ISSAQUENA LEFLORE SHARKEY
SUNFLOWER WARREN WASHINGTON
YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 281
VALID 172235Z - 172340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..05/17/25
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 281
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-011-017-041-043-172340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY BRADLEY CHICOT
DESHA DREW
$$
LAC035-065-067-083-123-172340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
EAST CARROLL MADISON MOREHOUSE
RICHLAND WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC011-051-053-055-083-125-133-149-151-163-172340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR HOLMES HUMPHREYS
ISSAQUENA LEFLORE SHARKEY
SUNFLOWER WARREN WASHINGTON
YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
Low (<2%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Low (20%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (30%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (70%)
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The “Low” category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
“Moderate” from 30% to 60%, and “High” from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
