Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 843

   Mesoscale Discussion 0843
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0435 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

   Areas affected...Central Oklahoma

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 279...

   Valid 172135Z - 172300Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 279 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat for WW 279 is increasing, with an
   isolated supercell thunderstorm ongoing across central Oklahoma. All
   hazards are anticipated, including hail larger than 2.00", 65-80 MPH
   winds, and tornadoes.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery shows an ongoing supercell
   thunderstorm that is undergoing an updraft split. 20Z OUN sounding
   data and KTLX VAD data show very strong low-level shear and
   streamwise vorticity that will favor the right split and an eastward
   storm motion along the warm front, resulting in increased tornado
   potential this afternoon into the evening. A strong tornado is
   possible with the right splitting supercell as it approaches and
   crosses the I-35 corridor in the next 1-2 hours. Echo tops on the
   right-split of the supercell have increased to 55 kft, suggesting
   rapid updraft intensification. Any additional thunderstorms that
   develop and interact with the warm front will be capable of all
   hazards.

   ..Halbert.. 05/17/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34389875 34659956 34919988 35359994 35589951 35769911
               35659756 35549688 35279585 34909543 34499561 34259620
               34239737 34389875 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN