Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 841

   Mesoscale Discussion 0841
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0312 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

   Areas affected...Southern Arkansas into northeast Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 172012Z - 172215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated thunderstorm or two may pose a large
   hail/damaging wind threat through late afternoon. Watch issuance is
   not expected.

   DISCUSSION...GOES 1-minute imagery shows building cumulus along a
   northward advancing warm front across north/northeastern LA.
   Multiple weak attempts at convective initiation have been noted over
   the past 20 minutes, but it remains unclear if sustained deep
   convection will become established. Locally enhanced convergence
   associated with the outflow of a decaying supercell to the southeast
   may promote adequate ascent for a storm or two within the next
   couple of hours. If a storm can become established, the convective
   environment (characterized by 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 50 knots of
   effective shear) would support supercellular storm modes (this was
   demonstrated by a prior cell that produced 2.5 inch hail near
   Jackson, MS). Storm propagation to the southeast along the warm
   front/outflow boundary is likely with the potential for severe hail
   (possibly as large as 2.5 inches) and damaging gusts. Given the
   localized nature of this threat, watch issuance is not anticipated.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 05/17/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32639281 32899328 33129355 33439358 33649340 33619307
               33569298 33359250 33229203 33139165 33099124 33049108
               32769094 32479101 32269121 32089149 32059185 32639281 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN