Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 839

   Mesoscale Discussion 0839
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0156 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

   Areas affected...Northern Utah and adjacent portions of far
   southeast Idaho and southwest Wyoming

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 171856Z - 172100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms developing across
   northern/northeast Utah into far southeast Idaho and southwest
   Wyoming may be capable of severe gusts through late afternoon. Watch
   issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, temperatures have warmed into the
   mid to upper 60s across northeast UT on the eastern fringe of a
   dense cirrus canopy. Based on forecast soundings, temperatures in
   the 65-70 F range are required for surface-based convective
   initiation, which appears to be ongoing based on recent convective
   trends. Although buoyancy will remain very modest across the region
   (250-500 J/kg), a 2-3 km deep, well-mixed boundary layer will
   enhance convective downdrafts and support the potential for strong
   to severe wind gusts (most likely between 55-70 mph). This threat
   will likely persist through early evening as lift ahead of an
   approaching upper wave increases and low-level temperatures continue
   to warm across the region. Convective coverage should gradually
   increase through late afternoon, but storm longevity and the overall
   convective environment should remain sufficiently limited to
   preclude watch issuance.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 05/17/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH...

   LAT...LON   41230942 40200947 39690973 39281044 39041097 39081136
               39351165 39901206 40621230 41611241 42101231 42231212
               42341180 42521083 42360991 41900959 41230942 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH