Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 835

   Mesoscale Discussion 0835
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0551 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

   Areas affected...far northeast South Carolina into south-central
   Virginia

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 276...

   Valid 171051Z - 171215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 276
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms continue across the region. In
   the short-term the most imminent severe threat is across southern
   portions of the watch. Unless new development occurs soon, northern
   portions of the watch may be canceled early.

   DISCUSSION...Despite increasing instability within a strongly
   sheared environment, the general thunderstorm intensity trend
   continues to decrease across much of the watch area. 

   The exceptions to this trend are a couple of stronger cores across
   portions of far northern South Carolina and far southern North
   Carolina. Here, small hail and isolated wind damage threat should
   persist for at least another hour as the storms move through a
   relative minimum in instability. Should these storms survive this
   trek and reach central/eastern portions of the NC/SC line, an
   increasingly unstable airmass may support reintensification and a
   renewed severe threat. 

   Elsewhere, most thunderstorms have dissipated with a widespread
   stratiform rain shield taking their place. However, recent radar
   imagery suggests the development of convective showers/storms
   developing across central North Carolina. Should these
   showers/storms continue to strengthen/mature, the overall
   environment will support gusty winds and isolated large hail.
   However, if these storms are unable to persist, the severe threat
   should continue to weaken and northern portions of the watch may be
   canceled early.

   ..Marsh.. 05/17/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   34988299 37057974 37057685 34998017 34988299 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN