Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 834

   Mesoscale Discussion 0834
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0533 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

   Areas affected...Northern Mississippi and central/northern Alabama

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 275...

   Valid 171033Z - 171200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 275
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Long-lived thunderstorm clusters continue east across
   northern Mississippi and central Alabama. Isolated hail and strong
   winds remain possible.

   DISCUSSION...A long-lived, leading thunderstorm capable of hail and
   strong winds continues to move across central Alabama this morning.
   To the west, a line of additional thunderstorms stretches back into
   southeast Arkansas. A couple of stronger cores across central
   Alabama appear to have been able to tap into the substantial CAPE
   reservoir (MUCAPE greater than 2000 J/kg) along and just south of
   these thunderstorms. Deep-layer shear remains strong as well.

   As we approach the diurnal minimum in convection, the overall
   tendency of these thunderstorms should be to continue their downward
   intensity trend. That said, the overall environment is still
   supportive of at least episodic pulses of severe potential and thus
   additional instances of severe hail or wind cannot be ruled out.

   A local extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #275 may be needed
   across central Alabama to the south of the west-to-east, southward
   sagging linear MCS should convective intensity within the line ticks
   up. Elsewhere, trends will continue to be monitored for possible
   early cancellation of portions of the watch.

   ..Marsh.. 05/17/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   33519057 34858558 33108564 32858986 33519057 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN