Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 832

   Mesoscale Discussion 0832
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0150 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

   Areas affected...northern Mississippi into northern and central
   Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 170650Z - 170745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms across northern Mississippi should
   continue moving east through the morning. A downstream watch may be
   necessary in the next hour or two.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms continues across southern
   Arkansas into northern Mississippi where an environment
   characterized by strong instability and deep-layer shear are
   supporting robust updrafts. Recent radar trends suggest hail up to
   1.5" in diameter and gusty winds are possible with the strongest of
   these thunderstorm cores. 

   The environment ahead of these storms remains conducive for robust
   updrafts with MLCAPE greater than 1000 J/kg (and MUCAPE between
   2000-3000 J/kg) and deep-layer shear in excess of 50 knots. Thus,
   the area downstream of Tornado Watch #270 is being monitored for a
   potential new watch, and/or an extension in space of Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch #274. 

   Increasing convective inhibition may yield increasingly elevated
   thunderstorms with time, favoring large hail and gusty winds as the
   primary severe hazards. However, the overall environment will remain
   conducive for supercell thunderstorms and with effective-layer SRH
   between 200-300 a tornado cannot be ruled out.

   Across northern Alabama the threat is a bit more uncertain. Here a
   long-lived linear MCS continues to push south through Tennessee.
   Although thunderstorm activity within this line has been sub-severe
   of late, the overall environment remains fairly conducive for robust
   thunderstorm updrafts and perhaps a severe hail and wind threat. If
   thunderstorm intensity increases as these Tennessee thunderstorms
   approach Alabama, a need for a downstream watch will become
   necessary for portions of northern Alabama.

   ..Marsh/Bunting.. 05/17/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   33239095 33969101 34419000 34808745 34778557 32908685
               33239095 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN