Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 829

   Mesoscale Discussion 0829
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0737 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

   Areas affected...Central and Eastern Ohio...Western Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 170037Z - 170300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A tornado / wind-damage threat may develop across parts of
   central and eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania later this
   evening. As a severe convective line organizes and approaches,
   weather watch issuance may be needed.

   DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a cluster of
   supercells in the lower Ohio valley. These storms are located along
   and near an axis of moderate to strong instability. The northern
   extension of the instability axis is located from central and
   northern Ohio into northwestern Pennsylvania, where MLCAPE is in the
   1000 to 1500 J/kg range, according to the RAP. As the convective
   cluster grows upscale, a linear MCS is expected to organize and move
   eastward through the remainder of the Ohio Valley this evening.
   Short-term model forecasts suggest the severe MCS will move eastward
   into the central Appalachians. Uncertainty exists concerning how far
   north this feature will track. If the severe part of the MCS ends up
   moving through central and northern Ohio, then a severe threat will
   be likely over parts of eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania by mid
   to late evening. QLCS tornadoes and wind-damage will be the primary
   threats.

   ..Broyles/Gleason.. 05/17/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...

   LAT...LON   40358297 40198141 40508065 41238044 41808100 41838224
               41648344 41468379 40908372 40358297 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN