Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 828

   Mesoscale Discussion 0828
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0727 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

   Areas affected...Central and northern Texas...as well as portions of
   southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 267...

   Valid 170027Z - 170230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 267
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are ongoing
   across portions of central and northern Texas. These storms will be
   capable of large to very-large hail and damaging wind gusts into the
   evening hours. Conditions are being monitored for additional watch
   issuance downstream of WW 267 into southern Arkansas and northern
   Louisiana.

   DISCUSSION...Severe thunderstorms have developed in central and
   northern Texas in the vicinity of a surface cold front and dryline,
   with an environment characterized by very large buoyancy and strong
   (largely unidirectional) shear vectors supportive of supercell
   thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds. The 00Z
   sounding from FWD shows very steep 700-500mb lapse rates, 500mb
   temperatures of -11 C, and 80 kts of effective bulk shear -- all
   supportive of hail exceeding 2".  Initially straight-line hodographs
   will favor splitting supercells, with a left split already evident
   in central Texas with a storm motion taking it towards the DFW
   metroplex later this evening, in addition to the ongoing convection
   there at this time. 

   Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue to the north and east
   later into the evening, with conditions being monitored for
   downstream watch issuance in southern Arkansas and northern
   Louisiana. Uncertainty exists in convective coverage and longevity,
   but any storms that do persist or develop along the surface cold
   front would be capable of very large hail and damaging winds.

   ..Halbert.. 05/17/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30709863 31309855 32179843 32789795 33199735 34039473
               34249401 34279315 34009261 33589204 33189182 32809175
               32419196 32169267 31639430 31389508 30879616 30749656
               30659698 30559754 30529825 30709863 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN