Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 827

   Mesoscale Discussion 0827
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0723 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

   Areas affected...portions of the Great Lakes

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 170023Z - 170230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Some instances of severe hail and wind possible with
   thunderstorms activity this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is ongoing across portions of far
   southeastern WI/northeastern IL and into portions of lower Michigan.
   Within this region, a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates is
   in place amid MLCAPE around 500 J/kg. Deep layer shear is strongest
   across the southern Michigan peninsula, where 0-6 km shear around
   40-50kts is in place. This environment will support a few instances
   of severe hail and wind. It is unlikely a watch will be needed at
   this time due to generally weak instability and loss of daytime
   heating.

   ..Thornton/Gleason.. 05/17/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...

   LAT...LON   42598458 41658732 42328780 43008791 43528790 44018755
               44948595 45058587 45358483 45198421 44568376 44068359
               43508370 42938413 42598458 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN