Storm Prediction Center Tornado Watch 258

Note: 
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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   SEL8

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 258
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Eastern Lower Michigan
     Lake Erie
     Lake Huron

   * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 1130 PM
     until 500 AM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 75 mph possible
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...A well-organized thunderstorm cluster should continue to
   pose a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds and a couple of
   tornadoes as it moves quickly eastward across Lower Michigan.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 35 miles northwest of Bad Axe MI to 35
   miles south of Ann Arbor MI. For a complete depiction of the watch
   see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 256...WW 257...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
   storm motion vector 25045.

   ...Gleason

Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

   SAW8 
   WW 258 TORNADO MI LE LH 160330Z - 160900Z
   AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
   35NW BAX/BAD AXE MI/ - 35S ARB/ANN ARBOR MI/
   ..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM E/W /19SSW ASP - 34SSW DXO/
   HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
   MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.

   LAT...LON 44138248 41718278 41718472 44138450

   THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
   FOR WOU8.

Watch 258 Status Report Messages:

STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 258

VALID 160435Z - 160540Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW JXN
TO 20 SW FNT TO 15 NW FNT TO 30 NW MBS.

..SPC..05/16/25

ATTN...WFO...DTX...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WT 258 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

MIC017-049-063-087-091-093-099-111-115-125-145-147-151-157-161-
163-160540-

MI 
.    MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BAY		     GENESEE		 HURON		     
LAPEER		     LENAWEE		 LIVINGSTON	     
MACOMB		     MIDLAND		 MONROE 	     
OAKLAND 	     SAGINAW		 ST. CLAIR	     
SANILAC 	     TUSCOLA		 WASHTENAW	     
WAYNE		     
$$


LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-462-463-464-
160540-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

ST. CLAIR RIVER 

DETROIT RIVER 

LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION) 

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI 

OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY 

INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI 

PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI 

HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI 

PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI 

LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER 

LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER 

LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER 

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

Note:
 Click for Complete Product Text.

Tornadoes

Wind

Hail

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The “Low” category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
“Moderate” from 30% to 60%, and “High” from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.