Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended. Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 256
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
820 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Lower Michigan
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 820 PM
until 300 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorms will spread east-northeastward this
evening and overnight across much of Lower Michigan while posing a
threat for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds. Peak gusts
may reach up to 70-80 mph. A few tornadoes may also occur within the
line of convection. Large hail will be possible with any embedded
supercells.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 60 miles north of Traverse City MI to
10 miles southwest of Kalamazoo MI. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 251...WW 253...WW
254...WW 255...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24040.
...Gleason
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 256 TORNADO MI LM 160020Z - 160700Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
60N TVC/TRAVERSE CITY MI/ - 10SW AZO/KALAMAZOO MI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /56N TVC - 28SE PMM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
LAT...LON 45598434 42128452 42128686 45598682
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 256 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 256
VALID 160400Z - 160540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE AZO
TO 20 SW LAN TO 35 NNW LAN TO 45 W MBS TO 35 ESE MBL TO 55 W PLN.
..SPC..05/16/25
ATTN...WFO...GRR...APX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 256
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC009-011-025-029-031-035-037-039-045-047-051-057-065-069-073-
075-079-113-129-137-143-160540-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANTRIM ARENAC CALHOUN
CHARLEVOIX CHEBOYGAN CLARE
CLINTON CRAWFORD EATON
EMMET GLADWIN GRATIOT
INGHAM IOSCO ISABELLA
JACKSON KALKASKA MISSAUKEE
OGEMAW OTSEGO ROSCOMMON
$$
LHZ363-160540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 256
VALID 160250Z - 160340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W SBN TO
30 NNE MKG TO 15 NE ESC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 800
..WEINMAN..05/16/25
ATTN...WFO...GRR...APX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 256
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC005-009-015-019-025-029-031-035-037-039-045-047-055-057-065-
067-073-075-077-079-081-085-089-101-107-113-117-123-133-137-139-
143-159-165-160340-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN ANTRIM BARRY
BENZIE CALHOUN CHARLEVOIX
CHEBOYGAN CLARE CLINTON
CRAWFORD EATON EMMET
GRAND TRAVERSE GRATIOT INGHAM
IONIA ISABELLA JACKSON
KALAMAZOO KALKASKA KENT
LAKE LEELANAU MANISTEE
MECOSTA MISSAUKEE MONTCALM
NEWAYGO OSCEOLA OTSEGO
OTTAWA ROSCOMMON VAN BUREN
WEXFORD
$$
LMZ323-342-344-345-362-364-160340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY
SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5NM OFFSHORE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 256
VALID 160140Z - 160240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..WEINMAN..05/16/25
ATTN...WFO...GRR...APX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 256
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC005-009-015-019-025-029-031-035-037-039-045-047-055-057-065-
067-073-075-077-079-081-085-089-101-105-107-113-117-121-123-127-
133-137-139-143-159-165-160240-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN ANTRIM BARRY
BENZIE CALHOUN CHARLEVOIX
CHEBOYGAN CLARE CLINTON
CRAWFORD EATON EMMET
GRAND TRAVERSE GRATIOT INGHAM
IONIA ISABELLA JACKSON
KALAMAZOO KALKASKA KENT
LAKE LEELANAU MANISTEE
MASON MECOSTA MISSAUKEE
MONTCALM MUSKEGON NEWAYGO
OCEANA OSCEOLA OTSEGO
OTTAWA ROSCOMMON VAN BUREN
WEXFORD
$$
LMZ323-342-344-345-346-362-364-366-844-845-846-847-848-849-868-
870-872-874-876-878-160240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY
SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5NM OFFSHORE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI
SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI
GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI
PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
Low (20%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (70%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (40%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (50%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (30%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (90%)
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The “Low” category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
“Moderate” from 30% to 60%, and “High” from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
