Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 822

   Mesoscale Discussion 0822
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0513 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of the Mid-Atlantic

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 263...264...266...

   Valid 162213Z - 162345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 263, 264,
   266 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat across the Mid Atlantic continues, with
   damaging straight-line winds in excess of 60 MPH and hail around
   1.00-1.50" expected. These storms will continue to move eastward
   into the evening, and eventually offshore into the Atlantic.

   DISCUSSION...Severe thunderstorms ongoing across the Mid Atlantic
   have been responsible for widespread reports of 50-65 MPH wind gusts
   and wind damage, along with reports of 1.00-1.50" hail. These storms
   are expected to remain severe as they cross the Chesapeake Bay into
   eastern Maryland and Delaware, before eventually moving offshore
   into the Atlantic. 

   Additionally, an isolated supercell thunderstorm has developed ahead
   of the line in eastern Maryland. VAD wind profiles from Dover AFB
   show some low-level curvature of the hodograph (sfc-1km SRH ~180
   m^2/s^2). While damaging winds and hail are the primary threat, some
   tornado potential does exist with this discrete convection.

   ..Halbert.. 05/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   37817630 37837633 38117663 38457674 38747682 39057675
               39307671 39607651 39777646 39787594 39517542 39047499
               38587495 38137502 37877519 37767579 37777616 37817630 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN