Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 819

   Mesoscale Discussion 0819
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0310 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

   Areas affected...much of northeast Texas into much of southern
   Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 162010Z - 162215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms appear likely later this
   afternoon, with large hail and locally damaging gusts the most
   likely threats.

   DISCUSSION...The primary surface front currently extends from near
   Ft. Smith AR southwestward into parts of North Texas, with very
   strong instability in place. A special 19Z FWD sounding shows MLCAPE
   of 3250 J/kg, along with 0-6 km shear around 55 kt. 

   Weak convergence along the front and continued heating should result
   in sporadic storm development along this boundary, and the
   environment will supercells producing very large hail. Visible
   imagery shows towering CU along portions of the front, and
   initiation appears likely in the next couple hours.

   ..Jewell/Mosier.. 05/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34369509 34789443 35099394 35249302 35189235 34959178
               34279140 33559168 31649578 31279754 31699831 32319820
               32579790 33369643 34369509 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN