Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 816

   Mesoscale Discussion 0816
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0135 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

   Areas affected...central/southern VA and far northern NC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 161835Z - 162100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms may spread east of WW 261 across
   parts of southern to central Virginia into northern North Carolina.
   Uncertainty exists with overall intensity and coverage, but at least
   an isolated severe threat seems probable.

   DISCUSSION...Earlier supercells within WW 261 have consolidated into
   a pair of clusters, one crossing the WV/VA border and a more
   prominent one moving from KY into far southwest VA. How this
   activity evolves east of WW 261 is rather uncertain. Recent HRRR
   runs are insistent on this activity weakening with mesoscale-ascent
   tending to focus north ahead of a remnant MCV over northern WV. In
   addition, SFCOA highlights appreciable MLCIN still lingering in
   parts of the Piedmont, centered on the VA/NC border area. Still,
   strong deep-layer speed shear, coupled with a rear-inflow jet
   apparent in JKL VWP data behind the latter cluster, may support a
   focused swath of damaging wind and embedded hail threat persisting
   into the late afternoon to early evening.

   ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   37698001 37817966 37977886 38027807 37937751 37717727
               37177723 36707736 36457757 36257787 36177857 36087931
               36198036 36798010 37418008 37698001 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN