Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 815

   Mesoscale Discussion 0815
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1241 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

   Areas affected...the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 161741Z - 162015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail and damaging winds should develop by
   late afternoon across parts of the central Appalachians and
   Mid-Atlantic States.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple convective regimes are apparent through the
   rest of the afternoon within relatively nebulous large-scale ascent.
   This may yield a less focused severe threat, but should support
   isolated severe hail and damaging winds by late afternoon. One
   regime may be emanating ahead of a subtle MCV remnant that appears
   to be along the southeast OH/western WV border area. Despite a
   pronounced cirrus canopy downstream and low-level westerlies, deep
   convection may be sustained ahead of the MCV across northern WV. A
   few cells have also formed along remnant outflow in
   southwest-central PA, and may eventually develop southeast of this
   into parts of MD. With 35-45 kt effective bulk shear, largely driven
   by increasing speed with height above the low-levels, and 1500-2000
   J/kg of MLCAPE amid moderate mid-level lapse rates, a mix of both
   severe hail and wind will be possible.

   ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   39118084 39888069 40687953 40907859 40657768 40067725
               39697661 39547612 39067635 38627681 38407967 39118084 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN