Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 813

   Mesoscale Discussion 0813
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1141 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

   Areas affected...northern Arkansas...much of Missouri...western
   Illinois...far eastern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 161641Z - 161915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are likely to rapidly develop over parts of central
   to southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas, with developing
   damaging hail and tornado threat.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis and satellite imagery show the warm
   front continues to rapidly move north across MO, with extreme
   instability developing. Incipient storms are noted on radar just
   ahead of the cold front over southwest MO and northwest AR, and
   these will likely become supercells with time. Additional storms are
   likely through the afternoon overspreading the rest of MO, northern
   AR and western IL. Very large and damaging hail appears likely, with
   a few tornadoes as well.

   ..Jewell/Mosier.. 05/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35509201 34939426 35239466 35869437 36939383 39089268
               39479224 39579129 39449033 38938984 38438959 37298959
               36558964 36089003 35509201 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN