Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 812

   Mesoscale Discussion 0812
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1111 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

   Areas affected...south NJ and DE

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260...

   Valid 161611Z - 161815Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging winds and severe hail will remain possible into
   mid-afternoon across south New Jersey into Delaware.

   DISCUSSION...Deep convective cores within a morning MCS have
   contracted in areal extent, largely following along the CAPE
   gradient in southeast PA/south NJ. A separate, discrete cell with
   echo tops over 50k feet has moved into far southern NJ. Although
   MRMS MESH has suggested only marginally severe hail thus far, this
   supercell and perhaps another one flanking to its south will have
   the best potential to produce large hail into mid-afternoon.
   Otherwise, strong gusts producing sporadic damaging winds will be
   possible with the shrinking cluster as it likely continues across
   the rest of south NJ.

   ..Grams.. 05/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX...

   LAT...LON   40417505 40007455 39647434 39217449 38947472 38807497
               38797526 38857559 39137590 39577577 39937543 40417505 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN