Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 811

   Mesoscale Discussion 0811
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1106 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

   Areas affected...south-central Kentucky into parts of northern
   Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 161606Z - 161830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms may persist in the near term west
   of the WW 261. Hail and locally strong gusts are most likely.

   DISCUSSION...Episodes of storms continue to move eastward across KY
   and northern TN within the low-level warm advection regime, and atop
   existing outflows. Instability continues to strengthen over TN, and
   southwesterly winds will maintain the unstable air into the existing
   zone of storms/outflows. In the near term, the stronger storms in
   the existing line may produce hail or locally strong gusts before
   moving into WW 261 to the east. There is some chance that the
   increasing instability supports a tail-end cell producing damaging
   hail, and/or a cell may form ahead of the line.

   ..Jewell/Mosier.. 05/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

   LAT...LON   36608660 36988581 37438535 37538487 37518423 37188400
               36578410 36278440 36058470 36348684 36608660 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN