Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 807

   Mesoscale Discussion 0807
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0740 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

   Areas affected...northeast AR into central KY

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259...

   Valid 161240Z - 161445Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm cluster may continue to pose a risk for hail
   and sporadic strong gusts this morning. Local watch extension may be
   needed for portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259.

   DISCUSSION...Strong to severe thunderstorms continue from northeast
   AR into central KY this morning. While previously a new watch was
   considered, given some weakening in the clusters across central KY,
   local watch extensions may be more appropriate as uncertainty in
   downstream evolution has increased. Nevertheless, a favorable
   environment will persist, supporting a continued large hail risk in
   the short term. If further upscale growth occurs with ongoing
   clusters, a risk for damaging gust potential could increase later
   this morning or toward midday downstream from WW 259. Local watch
   extensions for 1-2 hours may be need if current trends persist for
   another 30-60 minutes.

   ..Leitman.. 05/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

   LAT...LON   35859123 36958951 37858730 38108569 38108488 37628479
               37108553 36058880 35559013 35419106 35469128 35859123 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN