Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 806

   Mesoscale Discussion 0806
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0635 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

   Areas affected...northeast AR/southeast MO into parts of KY/TN...WV
   and western VA

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259...

   Valid 161135Z - 161330Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large to very large
   hail will persist across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259. This
   activity may maintain severity downstream into eastern Kentucky and
   portions of West Virginia and western Virginia. A new watch may be
   needed to replace WW 259 and to expand downstream.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered severe thunderstorm clusters are ongoing this
   morning from northeast AR into central KY. This activity is
   occurring in a warm advection regime and on the fringes of an 850 mb
   southwesterly low-level jet. While some inhibition is present in the
   low-levels given the nocturnally cooled boundary layer, MUCAPE from
   1000-2000 J/kg is in place amid a moist airmass. Elongated/straight
   supercell profiles and cool temperatures aloft also are present.
   Thus, a large hail threat will accompany any more discrete
   convection. 

   Recent radar trends suggest clustering may be underway near the MO
   Bootheel and into western KY. If this continues, convection could
   develop into a small MCS and move across KY toward WV/VA, posing a
   risk for strong/severe wind gusts as well as the downstream airmass
   destabilizes and inhibition erodes later this morning as diurnal
   heating ensues. 

   An isolated cell also is approaching the edge of WW 259 across
   central KY and a downstream watch and/or larger watch replacement
   may be needed soon.

   ..Leitman.. 05/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...
   MEG...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   36099212 37318926 38118690 38378469 38378276 38018181
               37338153 36908156 36618216 36488344 36098828 35479074
               35229206 35259222 35619238 36099212 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN