Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 804

   Mesoscale Discussion 0804
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0338 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

   Areas affected...northeast Ohio...northwest Pennsylvania...and
   western New York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 160838Z - 161015Z

   CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC TEXT AND COUNTY LOCATION

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Long-lived thunderstorms continue to slowly weaken as they
   move east. Brief gusty winds and small hail will be possible in the
   short term. A watch is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Morning radar imagery shows a long-lived MCS continuing
   to move east across Lake Erie. The environment ahead of the MCS
   across the highlighted region rapidly becomes less supportive of
   severe thunderstorms as compared to the environment last evening
   across Michigan. This less favorable environment should support a
   continued downward trend in convective intensity as MUCAPE and
   Effective Layer Shear both drop off with eastward extend across the
   highlighted area. Satellite imagery bears this out as cloud tops
   warm across much of the MCS. 

   The exception to this cloud top warming is the far southern
   cell/storm moving into Eerie County, PA. Brief gusty winds and small
   hail may be possible for the next hour or so with this cell as it
   continues to move east.

   Additional thunderstorms may develop later this morning along/ahead
   of the MCS, but the overall environment should remain unsupportive
   of an organized severe threat.

   Given the unfavorable environment for an organized severe threat, a
   watch is not anticipated across the area.

   ..Marsh/Bunting.. 05/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   41388281 43728040 43667899 42537752 40697875 41388281 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN