June 11, 2025

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 801

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Mesoscale Discussion 801
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0801
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0947 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of eastern Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 160247Z - 160445Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts will increase in the next
   couple hours with an MCS approaching from the west. A watch will
   likely be issued for parts of the area.

   DISCUSSION...A north/south-oriented MCS is advancing eastward at
   around 40-50 kt across western Lower MI -- with a history of severe
   wind gusts upwards of 70 mph. Around 40-50 kt of line-orthogonal
   deep-layer shear (per GRR/DTX VWP data), and middle 60s
   boundary-layer dewpoints, should continue to favor deep/intense
   updrafts along the leading-edge gust front. Given the expectation
   for this well-established system to be maintained with eastward
   extent into parts of eastern Lower MI, posing a continued risk of
   severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief/embedded tornado or two, a
   downstream watch issuance is likely for parts of the area.

   ..Weinman/Gleason.. 05/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   42118438 42458436 43978453 44688443 44848404 44738345
               44378298 43368272 42498281 42028312 41808366 41798415
               42118438 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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2025-05-16 03:04:04