Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 800

   Mesoscale Discussion 0800
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0900 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of western Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 256...

   Valid 160200Z - 160330Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 256 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe MCS with embedded supercell structures moving
   ashore over western Lower Michigan. Damaging wind gusts and embedded
   tornadoes are the primary concerns.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from GRR depicts a well-organized
   north/south-oriented MCS with embedded supercell structures moving
   ashore over western Lower MI. The GRR VWP is sampling 40 kt of 0-6km
   shear oriented perpendicular to the leading gust front, and 40-50 kt
   at 1 km AGL -- supporting ample low-level streamwise vorticity
   ingestion based on an eastward system motion. These factors, coupled
   with middle/upper 60s dewpoints and moderate surface-based buoyancy,
   will favor severe wind gusts (some upwards of 70-80 mph possible)
   and tornadoes -- especially near any embedded
   supercells/mesovorticies and rear-inflow jets.

   ..Weinman.. 05/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...APX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   42818638 43458636 44178648 44398604 44368557 44018513
               43438499 42918504 42348520 41908556 41748601 41768654
               42088668 42818638 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN